Entry, stop-loss and take-profit ranges and the exit policy shown
Where each number on the consensus card and the signal panel comes from, and how to use the chase limit, tight and wide stops, TP1 and TP2.
The four boxes
When the consensus card shows anything other than WAIT it opens a row of four boxes: Entry range, Stop-loss range, Take-profit range and Odds. The pattern-engine verdict box and the signal panel show the same kind of numbers built from a pattern instead of from the consensus.
Entry range and chase limit
The consensus entry range is the current price plus or minus a quarter of the 5-minute ATR. When price is extended more than max extension from EMA20 (ATR) from the 20-period EMA of the acting horizon's timeframe, the box is replaced by a Pullback zone (that EMA20 ± 0.3 of that timeframe's ATR) and the card says wait for pullback: the call is proven but you should not buy the pop; enter when price comes back into the zone. See Understanding the consensus card. The chase limit under it is the worst price you should still accept (0.6 ATR beyond the current price in the trade direction). If price has already moved past the chase limit, the edge measured in history no longer applies: wait for the next call.
For a pattern signal the entry range is the neckline retest zone and the chase limit the price beyond which the pattern's measured move no longer offers enough room.
Stop-loss range
Two values are given, tight and wide, with the distance from the entry mid in percent.
| Source | Tight stop | Wide stop |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus card | beyond the drawdown before it pays of the firing combinations' winners: their 80th-percentile adverse excursion before the target barrier was reached, plus 0.3 ATR (and never tighter than 1.1x the median adverse move after past correct calls, minimum 0.8 ATR) | the 75th percentile of the adverse move after past correct calls (never less than 1.2 ATR, always at least 0.4 ATR beyond the tight stop) |
| Pattern signal | beyond the last pivot plus an ATR buffer; when the consensus path statistics are available, at least the winners' drawdown-before-pay p80 plus 0.3 ATR from the entry mid | beyond the pattern's invalidation level |
The idea: a winning set-up on this pair typically goes some way against you before it pays. The deep analysis measures that wobble on the 5-minute path for every winner of every proven combination (see How a set-up is judged a win). The default stop sits beyond the 80th percentile of it, so four winners out of five would not have been stopped out before they paid. The Odds box shows the figure as drawdown first −0.84%, and the Stop-loss tooltip names the basis. When several combinations fire, the most conservative (largest) p80 among the top three is used. Combinations whose winners wobbled more than max drawdown before pay (ATR) are not used at all, so the stop never has to be absurdly wide.
The manual stop rule for trades the executor opens (Settings > Trading > default stop, 25% of price by default) is a separate backstop and is not affected.
All adverse-move statistics are measured on this pair during deep analysis, in 5-minute ATR units, so a volatile pair automatically gets wider stops than a quiet one.
Analog widening. When the analog forecast is available and the tight stop sits inside the typical wobble of the most similar past situations, the card widens the tight stop to the analog stop and says so in the note (Stop widened beyond the typical wobble of 60 similar past situations (0.84%)). See Analog forecasting and wobble-aware stops.
Take-profit range
- TP1 on the consensus card is the median first-passage favourable excursion of the best firing combination's winners: the move the winners actually reached first on the 5-minute path (the target barrier for a barrier win, the deadline move otherwise), never less than 1 ATR. TP2 is the 75th percentile of the same (at least 0.5 ATR beyond TP1). Until the path statistics exist the old rule applies (0.8x the median favourable move after past correct calls, 75th percentile for TP2). The percentages under the box are distances from the entry mid. The Odds box adds
pays in ~2.5 h: the median time the winners needed to reach the target barrier. - For a pattern signal TP1 is the measured move or the nearest strong level from the volume profile and prior swings, and TP2 is an extended target. The signal panel shows the historical hit rate next to each.
Odds
R:R is the reward to risk of TP1 against the tight stop. The horizon (in minutes) is the one the call is made for. wins 64% is the barrier win rate of the best firing combination, edge +0.31% its expectancy per trade after two taker fees and one funding settlement, drawdown first −0.84% the 80th-percentile wobble of its winners before they paid, and pays in ~2.5 h the median time to target. Before the path statistics exist the box shows the best combination's accuracy and model 64% long, the probability from the combination model. On a pattern signal the box shows the TP1 and TP2 hit rates, R:R, the typical number of bars to reach TP1 and the confirmation level.
The exit policy line
Under the boxes, Exit: half out at TP1, rest trails 1.5 ATR with stop at break-even · won 58% · expectancy +0.42% (112) names the way of managing the trade that paid best on this pair's past signals, with its win rate, average return per trade and the number of simulated trades. Six policies are compared during deep analysis; the best one by expectancy with at least 30 trades is shown. Until a policy reaches 30 trades the default exit policy from the trading settings applies (partial_trail: half out at TP1, rest trails). The full comparison is on the Performance page; see Exit policy backtest.
The executor applies it. Trades opened on a trading account are not left to TP1 or the stop: the winning policy manages them after entry (stop to break-even after +1 ATR, partial close at TP1 with a trailing stop, time stop), the consensus-flip exit closes a profitable trade or tightens the stop when this card turns against it, and the max loss guard closes any trade losing more than a set share of its margin. See Trade management after entry.
Leverage and liquidation
The ranges are price levels and do not depend on leverage. What leverage changes is whether the stop would be hit after liquidation. The signal panel's Why section shows a leverage note when the tight stop is beyond the estimated liquidation price at the chosen leverage. In My Positions the liquidation distance is tracked live for every recorded order.
Practical rules
- Enter only inside the entry range, never beyond the chase limit.
- Use the tight stop unless you deliberately want room; the wide stop costs R:R.
- Take at least partial profit at TP1 and move the stop to break-even. The positions tracker reminds you when TP1 is reached; trading accounts do it automatically (partial_trail policy).
- Respect the note under the card. During a macro event window widen stops or wait for the print.
Note: all percentages are unleveraged price moves. Multiply by your leverage to get the effect on margin.