Crash Radar levels, confirmation prices and re-alerts
Watch, warning and critical, the confirm / full confirmation / void levels, when the radar re-alerts, and why a crash watch restrains longs.
What the radar computes
Every minute (and every five seconds for the cascade detector) the radar produces a crash risk from 0 to 100% for each watched pair, plus Bitcoin and Ether, which are always watched because a market-wide drop affects every pair. The risk combines:
- a rule score of known precursors (funding extreme, open interest building with flat price, price stretched above the 200 MA, bearish divergence on several frames, rising wedge or M on higher frames, taker sell dominance, bid depletion, crowded longs, liquidation clustering, BTC weakening, extreme greed, volume drying up into highs);
- per-horizon models trained on this pair's crash catalog (15 min, 1 h, 4 h, 24 h), when enough labelled crashes exist; otherwise the card shows rules only;
- the cascade detector: price velocity over 30, 120 and 300 seconds, long liquidations above eight times the normal rate, and bid-side depth collapsing. A cascade score of 0.7 or more is critical on its own.
The risk is the highest horizon value, boosted by 10 points inside a macro event window. The Crash Radar page shows one card per pair with the per-horizon bars, cascade and rule components, the reasons and the most similar past crashes, with Evaluate now to recompute immediately.
Levels
| Level | Default threshold | What you see |
|---|---|---|
| watch | risk 40% | Yellow marker on the widget gauge, an entry in the alert drawer, no sound. |
| warning | risk 60% | Amber flashing widget border, warning sound, popup with reasons, levels and your positions on the pair. |
| critical | risk 80% or cascade | Fast red flashing across the app, a full-screen red takeover with a repeating siren until acknowledged, listing your open positions with Close longs on … and Close all buttons. |
Thresholds are under Settings > Crash radar (Watch threshold, Warning threshold, Critical threshold). Market-wide alerts (BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT) are shown even for stopped pairs and are marked market-wide.
Confirmation levels
Every warning carries three prices so you can decide instead of guessing:
| Level | How it is built | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Confirm below | the last 15-minute swing low, or half a 1h ATR below price, whichever is lower | A close below it means the warning is genuine. |
| Full confirmation | one more 1h ATR below the confirm level (at least two ATR below price) | The drop is under way; no long should remain. |
| Void above | the last 15-minute swing high, or one 1h ATR above price, whichever is higher | A move above it cancels the warning. |
They appear in the popup, in the alert drawer detail, and as the first reason on the Crash Radar card. The same levels become the stop and target of the crash-short call.
When the radar alerts again
An alert fires when the level escalates (none to watch, watch to warning, warning to critical). At the same level it repeats only when something material changed:
- the risk jumped by 10 points or more since the last alert;
- price reached the confirm level (within 0.3%);
- the confirm level moved by more than 1%;
- a live cascade started.
Critical repeats every 10 minutes while it persists. When risk falls back, an informational Crash risk on … eased to … alert is sent at most every 15 minutes.
Why a crash watch restrains longs
The radar is wired into the signal logic, not only the alerts:
- watch: no fresh GO LONG on the consensus card (capped to LEAN LONG, headline notes
crash watch active); a long pattern that would be a PREPARE LONG becomes WAIT; new long pattern signals get the vetocrash watch: no new long signals. - warning or critical: the consensus shows NO LONGS, the verdict box shows NO LONGS or CLOSE LONGS when a long signal is live, the executor refuses new longs (
crash risk warning: no new longs), and open manual longs get aCrash … while you hold a LONGalert. - critical with Auto-close longs on crash critical enabled (Trading page, global risk settings): every exchange-account long on the pair, or on every pair when market-wide, is closed at market.
Scoring
Twenty-four hours after each alert the radar checks whether price fell at least 3% from the alert price and how many minutes it took. The result (hit or false alarm, max drop, lead time) is in Crash alert history, and Hit rate per level summarises it. Judge the radar by these numbers, not by a single event.
Tip: a warning with price far above the confirm level is a reason to tighten stops, not to sell. A warning with price at the confirm level is the moment to act.